Pay awards hold at the lowest level since 2021
Pay increases hold steady at 3% while labour turnover pressures continue to impact businesses across the UK
Published: 19 February 2025 | Brightmine
New data from Brightmine, the HR data and insights provider, reveals that the median basic pay rise for the three months to the end of January remains at 3%. This marks the second consecutive rolling quarter at this level, following a revision of figures from 3.3% for the three months to December 2024.
This is the lowest median pay settlement recorded since December 2021, signalling a shift toward more restrained pay increases after a period of elevated awards.
January is one of two key months for pay awards, offering an early indication of where settlements are likely to trend for the rest of the year. As businesses navigate ongoing economic pressures, the upcoming increases in National Insurance contributions could further influence pay decisions and workforce planning in the months ahead.
Labour turnover rates in 2024 remain consistent with 2023
The latest Brightmine labour turnover data shows that rates have remained largely unchanged in 2024 compared to the previous year. The median voluntary turnover rate for the 2024 calendar year stood at 10.3%, while total turnover reached 14%. This stability follows a peak in levels in 2022, where the total turnover reached a median of 22.5%, highlighting the significant workforce shifts that have since stabilised.
However, despite this stability, more than one-third of organisations (36.1%) are concerned that turnover levels are too high.
Key drivers of employee turnover include limited opportunities for promotion or professional development, cited by over half of respondents (58.3%), followed by uncompetitive pay and benefits (49.6%) and excessive workload (28.3%).
High turnover rates pose challenges for businesses, leading to increased workloads and stress for remaining employees, skills shortages, delays in delivering key projects, and rising recruitment costs.
Sheila Attwood, senior content manager, data and HR insights at Brightmine comments: “January’s pay trends data confirms a clear shift toward more restrained pay awards as businesses respond to ongoing economic pressures. As we move further into 2025, the impact of rising national insurance contributions could add further complexity to pay decisions and workforce planning.” “While labour turnover rates have stabilised, the combination of pay awards stalling and ongoing concerns about workload and career progression could increase resignations later in 2025 – especially if inflation remains a pressure on real wages. Employers may need to balance cost control with competitive pay and other retention measures to avoid unwanted staff losses.”
“January’s pay trends data confirms a clear shift toward more restrained pay awards as businesses respond to ongoing economic pressures. As we move further into 2025, the impact of rising national insurance contributions could add further complexity to pay decisions and workforce planning.”
– Sheila Attwood, senior content manager, data and HR insights at Brightmine
Brightmine January 2024 Pay Trends Highlights
The Brightmine analysis this month is based on 69 pay settlements implemented between November 2024 and January 2025, representing more than 95,000 UK employees. With January being the first month of the year the analysis provides an indication of where pay deals are likely to fall for the rest of the year.
Most common basic award is worth 3%
More than half (55.4%) of all settlements that came into effect are worth between 2% and 3%, with 3% being most common (accounting for 24.6% of pay awards).
Range of pay awards drops
The upper quartile has dropped from previous months, down to 4%. Meanwhile, the lower quartile remains at 2.5% for the third rolling quarter. This shows a narrowing of variability in the pay awards being given. Just a fifth (20%) of deals are worth more than 4%, and only one-in-10 (10.8%) exceed 5%.
Most pay awards are lower than previous year
Nearly three quarters (72.3%) of pay awards are lower than those given to the same group of employees a year ago. Just 16.9% are higher.
Pay review pattern – whole economy, January 2024 to January 2025
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About the author
Brightmine
With more than 10,000 customers, Brightmine is a leading global provider of people data, analytics and insight – empowering HR leaders to deliver brighter business outcomes.
For more than two decades, Brightmine, formerly XpertHR, has continued to help HR leaders confidently navigate the evolving world of work through our unique combination of critical workforce data, AI-enabled technology, and trusted HR expertise.
Brightmine is a division of LexisNexis Data Services within RELX®, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools. RELX serves customers in 180+ countries with 35,000+ employees. Ticker: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
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