UK pay rises stagnate in Q3, declines still expected in 2025

Published: 19 November 2024 | Brightmine

New data from Brightmine (formerly XpertHR), the HR data and insights provider, highlights that UK pay rises have plateaued at 4% this quarter, while their 2025 Pay Forecast predicts a continued fall in pay awards for the coming year. Businesses cite economic constraints, affordability and recent government budget measures as primary factors expected to impact pay award decisions in 2025.

Government policy adds pressure

The recent budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves brings additional financial considerations for employers on top of the concerns they already had for next year, including rises in national insurance contributions (NICs) and the national minimum wage in 2025. Employers will see NICs increase from 13.8% to 15% on salaries over £5,000.

Additionally, minimum wage rates are set to rise, with the national living wage increasing to £12.21 per hour—a 6.7% boost over the previous rate—outpacing the anticipated 3% pay increases for next year. These changes are likely to place further constraints on employer pay award decisions, with 42% of businesses reporting that national minimum wage increases will place upward pressure on pay awards next year.

Sheila Attwood, Brightmine senior content manager, data and HR insights, comments: “With business costs rising, organisations are having to review their pay and benefits strategies to create a competitive offering that doesn’t solely focus on pay. Managing workforce expectations will be critical in the coming year and employers should clearly communicate pay decisions to maintain employee engagement during times of financial restraint. Typically, this would involve sharing information about business performance and affordability to help employees understand the rationale behind pay award decisions. It is important that this information is shared early in the pay review process to manage employee expectations more effectively.”

The next 12 months are expected to see a continued balancing act for businesses striving to retain talent while managing budget pressures and new regulatory costs.

Brightmine November pay trends 2024 highlights

The Brightmine analysis this month is based on the details of 24 pay awards that came into effect between 1 August and 30 October 2024. Collectively they cover the outcomes for just over 240,000 employees.

• Slightly wider range of awards. The interquartile range – marking the middle 50% of awards – has widened slightly, to stand between 3% and 5.5%. While representing a slightly wider gap than in the previous rolling quarter (3.3% to 5%), it still demonstrates a level of bunching around the median not seen over the past few years. Nevertheless, this is a marked change on the range of pay awards a year ago, when the lower quartile stood at 5% and the upper quartile at 8%.
• A variety of pay deals. In a matched sample analysis, nearly four in 10 (37.5%) of the latest pay deals are worth the same as the same group of employees received in 2023. Further analysis of this group reveals that these are among the lowest pay awards this time around. The remainder are split evenly between those that are higher, or lower (31.3% each).
• Most common award remains 4%. Exactly one-fifth (20%) of pay awards in the latest analysis are worth 4%, while 15% of pay deals are worth 3%.

About the data: November pay awards

The Brightmine analysis this month is based on the details of 24 pay awards that came into effect between 1 August and 30 October 2024. Collectively they cover the outcomes for just over 240,000 employees.

The next press release on pay settlement trends will be released on 19 December 2024.